Quick Debate Analysis: Part 2 (Republicans)
0 Comments Ryan Welton on Wednesday, June 13, 2007 at 10:50 PM.Days after Hillary and Barack made Dems take notice in New Hampshire, who did the same on the Republican side of the 2008 presidential race?
Truth is, both the Dems and the Republicans have to face shadow candidates. The left has Al Gore, who likely won't run as long as Hillary is dominating the field -- and she is.
The Republicans have former Sen. Fred Thompson, who in recent polls has pulled even with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Thompson likely will run, and his candidacy is formidable, although the insiders I've read suggest he's not nearly as Reaganesque as they'd like, and the concern among many is that he would make a lazy candidate.
As there were in the Democratic debate, fringe candidates failed to produce for the Right in Manchester. U.S. Rep. Ron Paul came off sounding liberal, and Colorado's Tom Tancredo is a one-note puppy -- immigration. Even if Tancredo's assessment of popular opinion on that subject is right, he really doesn't have any other tricks up his sleeve.
Tommy Thompson issued a major announcement on Wednesday, which turned out to be a subtle reminder to those who care that he's still running for president.
I literally don't remember Duncan Hunter, and Kansas' Sam Brownback is a one-note candidate, like Tancredo, except that Brownback's note is everything-Evangelical.
Among the candidates who are in the race right now, only former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Sen. John McCain and Giuliani stand a real chance. However, if there is one wildcard among the lot of them, I'd say it's former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
He's from Hope, Ark., like Bill Clinton, and although the two men come from polar opposites from within the political spectrum, they are both charismatic with a great sense of humor. Huckabee has a presence, much like Clinton has. My concern with Huckabee is that, really, because of his role as an ordained minister, he's really, potentially more of a theocrat than a bureaucrat.
Many would say the Republican Party has drifted that way anyway, but I don't see anything wrong with wearing your religion on the proverbial sleeve if you're a candidate. My concern is that Americans are interested in electing a pastor instead of a president every four years.
Still, I like Huckabee. Good guy. Bright. Charming -- and, I think he'll be a likely veep candidate for the nominee, possibly the former Law & Order actor, if he runs. As he did in the debate, Huckabee should focus on charm. He should highlight his downhome approach to issues. He should joke and make people feel at ease.
That's his only shot, but I think he's the one longshot with any shot, in either party.
Of the contenders, I truly think Romney stands no shot. It's the Mormon issue. The South. Evangelicals. They won't have it; I promise you. It's not what I think. Personally, I think Romney is a likeable guy but without much up top, like John Edwards. He's a Ken doll, as Ben Affleck called him.
On the other hand, it's not like McCain has done anything to make anybody think his candidacy stands a real shot. First, he clearly doesn't understand that the Republican base is adamantly against "amnesty" for illegal immigrants. Second, he was already to the Right as Joe Lieberman is to the Left -- a political traitor.
Rumblings mount that McCain's candidacy is losing steam, and much like Edwards lost the most ground among the Dems, McCain lost the most among the Republicans. McCain stepped out and defended not making English the official language of the country. McCain stumbled over the immigration bill portion of the debate, inviting others to offer better ideas, a suggestion they all took.
So, there in the middle stood Rudy, much like Hillary stood in the middle of the Dems on Sunday night. Giuliani was the first to stand up and walk toward the crowd when asked questions, a strategy everybody else soon followed. Having followed Giuliani for a few weeks, I thought his message was more conservative in Tuesday's debate than what he's used to considering his moderate position on most issues. He's basically to the left of them all, which combined with his stature as a good leader in crisis, I think, makes him the overwhelming favorite right now barring a run from Fred Thompson.
And, the debate changed none of that. Giuliani was sharp.
So, after watching the two debates, how would I rank each candidate's performance? I'd give Rudy the nod over Hillary, but it's a close 1-2 combo. I'd give Barack an edge over Mike Huckabee, who I think was the surprise of them all -- not that he has a chance.
But I'll bet you a crisp $5 he's the veep candidate for whoever wins the Republican nomination.
Labels: politics
0 Responses to “Quick Debate Analysis: Part 2 (Republicans)”
Post a Comment