Perhaps it's merely a coincidence, but I haven't blogged about OU-Texas -- the Red River Rivalry -- before the game, that is, since 2004.

That's the last time the Sooners won, and they did so 12-0 in what was possibly the most boring Red River Rumble in my memory.

However, the OU-Texas series (or Texas-OU if you hail from the Lone Star State) is as exciting as it gets. For me, it's the most important game of the year outside of a national championship game, if Oklahoma is lucky enough to play in one.

I've seriously considered this. Is it more important to me for OU to beat Texas or to win a Big 12 title game? Logic dictates that it should be the conference title game everytime, but so much about this series determines each team's fate even beyond the season.

The winner of Saturday's OU-Texas game will have the inside track on a bunch of Texas high school studs.

The winner of Saturday's contest will have the inside track to a Big 12 South championship, as long as the winner can beat the winner between Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. Done deal, particularly if it's OU because the Sooners get both Ag schools in Norman.

However, the 2007 matchup is one that most pundits agree should end in an Oklahoma win, perhaps even a rout. The Harmon Forecast says OU 34, Texas 20. The boys with CBS.sportsline.com all say OU wins this game. Even with a loss apiece, common football sense dictates that Oklahoma wins this game, perhaps handily.

Before the loss to Colorado, OU was a machine. Texas has struggled all year, particularly on their offensive line. But none of that means a thing in this game.

The team with the more experienced quarterback (Texas) in this game has won 34 of the last 45. The team ranked higher (Oklahoma) has won 42 of the last 55.

What gives?

In Norman, there is a divide among Sooners fans who believe that Bob Stoops' game plan was ultra vanilla against Colorado and those who believe that criticism directed toward Big Game Bob is ludicrous given his success.

I can see both sides. Heck, go to YouTube and look up Oklahoma games from 1999, 2000 and even 2003, and the Sooners were creative. End-arounds. Shovel passes. Hooks and laterals. Fake punts. Fake field goals.

Ever since Mike Stoops left for Arizona, the OU defense -- they say -- hasn't attacked the line of scrimmage like it used to. Go back to 2001 and Roy Williams' famous leap, one which Mike Stoops discouraged Roy from doing, by the way. Nevertheless, OU was a blitz machine, and they weren't shy about allowing their corners and safeties to man up.

But times have changed in Oklahoma in this sense. Expectations are so high that the OU community is a tad polarized. Anything less than a win, or perhaps a blowout win, and the doomsayers come out, suggesting we fire Brent Venables or Kevin Wilson or even questioning where Bob Stoops has lost a step.

On the other hand, such a great program has been rebuilt under Big Game Bob that he's taken to being defensive about any criticism.

However, rarely has Stoops so readily acknowledged he was outcoached in a football game as he did after OU's 27-24 loss to Colorado last weekend. Whether it was when Stoops first arrived in Norman or after losses in the past, if OU had the players, the Sooners always play great after a game in which Bob's coaching or his staff's coaching comes into question.

I'll be honest. I'm both a critic and a fan of Bob Stoops. On one hand, I think he's lost his gunslinger mentality, one that Boise State's Chris Petersen so deftly demonstrated in last season's Fiesta Bowl win over OU.

But Stoops has the better players most of the time, so I follow his logic regarding playing the game at a base level and letting physicality win out.

On the other hand, overly critical OU fans say, "When's the last time we won a close game on the road?"

Hello. Texas A&M last year, going for it on 4th down deep in our own territory.

Clint Ingram's interception against Oregon in the 2005 Holiday Bowl.

What about Oklahoma's past two wins in Stillwater?

To criticize Oklahoma's ability to gut it up in close games is unfounded. However, to say that the Sooners have played tight in big games the past three or four seasons is absolutely appropriate.

In the fourth quarter at Colorado, OU was wound as tight as a nun in a convent. Against Boise State and even LSU four years ago, I recall watching a conservative game plan get waylaid by teams and coaches with nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Now, the 2007 edition of the Longhorns aren't in that position. For both teams, a second conference loss spells not only the end of any national title hopes, but BCS and conference title aspirations go bye-bye.

We look at the beating Texas QB Colt McCoy has taken the past few weeks, having been injured in each of the last three games, and we automatically think Oklahoma has an advantage. Well, our defense hasn't exactly been the blitzing sort since Venables took over, which on the good side means we can focus our defensive resources on pass coverage but on the bad side means we have to stop other teams from throwing and hope that they're not able to rush the ball past our defensive linemen.

Last week, once Colorado established the pass, they were able to run all over us, and I look for Texas to come out throwing and hoping. If they're able to connect early and often, Oklahoma is in trouble.

Texas is not Tulsa, and even though they've struggled, they have great talent at skill positions. And while I don't think Colt McCoy is the second coming of Major Applewhite, he's got more experience than Sam Bradford.

No Oklahoma freshman quarterback has ever won this game, and like I noted, the team with the more experienced signal-caller wins more than three of four OU-Texas games.

Are you nervous now?

On the other hand, Texas has been bitten by both the injury bug and by the court of law, with several Longhorns standouts awaiting trial or off the team for various violations. On the Oklahoma side of the ball, I don't think you can overplay the loss of defensive end John Williams. The guy was becoming a monster before his injury.

While Oklahoma's offensive line has been great the first several weeks of the season, there is one glaring hole on the left side. At 6 feet 8 inches tall and 350 pounds, junior college transfer Phil Loadholdt -- you'd think -- would be a force.

However, clubs have started blitzing to his side of the ball because he lets more people by him than the American border patrol. His center of gravity is way too high, and stocky defensive ends or linebackers can knock his big butt down far too easily.

But if you think I'm of the belief that Texas will come out and whip us on Saturday, you're wrong.

We have the best player on the field in Malcolm Kelly.

We have the best kicker in Garrett Hartley.

By far, we have the best tight ends in Jermaine Gresham, Joe Jon Finley and the unheralded Brody Eldridge.

Our fullback, Dane Zaslaw, is a J.D. Runnels starter kit.

Ryan Reynolds reminds one of Rocky Calmus, and Auston English reminds me of a less stocky Kelly Gregg.

Texas has a versatile quarterback in McCoy, a guy who plays a lot like Cody Hawkins at Colorado. And, they have Jamal Charles, who will absolutely be the best running back on the field on Saturday. Oklahoma can't forget about Limas Sweed though, although Kansas State held Sweed to 14 yards on two catches.

However, the Longhorns are likely to come out looser this Saturday. They have won the past two seasons. They got creamed last week, and everybody and their dog, except those boys in the locker room, think Texas is doomed to lose this Red River Showdown.

And that's why I offer you my game plan for an OU victory this Saturday. Take it for what you will. I never played the game. I have never coached it. The only thing I can say I have done is watch a ton of football and play a ton of sports video games, which makes me like every other Joe Fan in the country.

1. First and foremost, Oklahoma has to be able to run the ball. My recommendation is to focus on running toward the right side of the offensive line. However, switch it up.

Handoff some of the time. Sweep it on other plays. Use the counter. The draw. Don't be afraid to option pitch on a 3rd and 1. The issue is that repetition breeds predictability, and a defense can start timing plays, which Colorado absolutely did against us last week.

2. Run the end around to Malcolm Kelly. Get him the ball in any way you can, and that includes the old play Curtis Fagan used to run in the early Stoops days, where the receiver would go in motion and get the ball as soon as he crossed the quarterback.

Put Kelly in the slot. Line him up at tight end. Line him up as the punter. Get him the ball.

3. Reserve play action for times when deception is really needed. We're doing it way too much. I might go play action deep on the first play of the game and then hold it back until the second quarter. I think we're much more effective a passing team out of the shotgun.

4. Go to a tight end at least once every 10 plays, which should mean about eight touches for the game. Go to them on third down.

5. Give me a gadget play once a half. Hook and lateral. Fake punt. Halfback pass. DeMarco Murray at quarterback. Something.

6. I want to see Keith Nichol in this game at least three times to do nothing but run a quarterback draw. Sorry to steal it from Florida, but Oklahoma would be wise to use this guy like they did Tim Tebow last year. He has great legs. Use them.

7. Blitz on first down every once in awhile. Texas will look to keep OU off-balance by throwing it on first down, and we should look to keep the Horns off-balance. If nothing else, give Texas blitz looks just to keep them guessing.

8. Don't be afraid to strip the ball. Just take it. Rip it from their hands.

9. Don't be afraid to commit pass interference when your man has you beat. In college, it's still only a 15-yard penalty.

10. Play gutsy in the return game. This is one area where I don't fault the Sooners. Sure, Reggie Smith should have held on to the ball against Colorado late in the game on Saturday, but Stoops has said he might spell the defender with Murray or Dominique Franks late. We have a definite advantage in the return game, and we should not be afraid to go for it.

11. Forget the trash talk. Save it for when the other team is demoralized.

12. Last but not least, don't be afraid to completely change the game plan if in the second quarter we're down 21-7 or 14-3 or whatever. The OU-Texas game, more than half the time, is not a close one. Little leads become big gaps really fast. The team that leads at the half almost always wins, so the team slowest to adjust will lose on Saturday.

With that said, what do I think will happen?

A close examination of most relevant stats, with the exception of the one that says the higher-ranked team wins more than 80 percent of the time, suggests Texas wins its third straight over OU. Heck, in this series, you can almost just pick the team that won it last year and be right almost 80 percent of the time.

However, while Big Game Bob got his nickname from stepping it up in games that counted the most in his early years at OU, most recently, it has been earned by stepping it up after a performance that sends fans to their collective ledges.

In fact, backs against the wall, when everybody's down on him or the team or his coordinators, Stoops is absolutely at his best. And all things being equal, Bob Stoops is still a damned good coach.

I love OU in this game and love them to cover the spread. Oklahoma wins 45-20.