Well, kids, we have our Top 12.

That sentence in and of itself is recognizable to any student of 21st Century pop culture. It means the American Idol final group is set.

However, Danny Noriega will not be part of that group.

Boo, hiss. By a mile, he was one of the most interesting contestants the show has ever produced. Admittedly, his flamboyance made him particularly fascinating for television. However, truth be told, he was smack in the middle of one of the more talented groups of Idol dudes the show has produced in seven seasons.

His recently discovered YouTube video, however, did him no favors:

That's right, Noriega said he hopes that Santa comes to rape your mother. Ah, the words little boys will say publicly for millions to see. It's absolutely a lesson for future budding stars; never miss an opportunity to shut up.

Again though, personally, in my warped view of the universe, it made him all the more interesting. Like you might never know what he would say or do on live television.

Also gone tonight are Luke Menard, Kady Malloy and Asia'h Epperson.

While the elimination of Menard and Malloy were no surprise, Epperson's dismissal was a relative shock, given that Amanda Overmyer and Kristi Lee Cook earned spots in the Top 12. However, unlike Noriega, Epperson never really connected with any niche of Idol voter.

And like during a political election, there are various sects of Idol blocs. There are the teenyboppers, made up of tween and teen girls.

There are the musicians, who either go for pure vocal talent or musical intrigue, particularly if they know a singer can play an instrument or write songs.

There are the stylists, those who judge contestants basically on look-and-feel.

There is the country niche, the rock niche and the soul niche -- and, often these blocs get divided when more than one singer fits the bill. In Season 3, the soul niche got eaten alive when Jennifer Hudson, LaToya London and Fantasia all made the Final 7.

Speaking of which, once we pass the Top 12, there are a few more demarcations by which Idol fans judge contestant success. First, there is the Top 10, which is the cut-off line for joining the Idol tour.

The Top 7 is what I like to call the Hudson Line. Essentially, it's the lowest place one can finish and still become a huge success, as evidenced by Jennifer Hudson.

The Top 6, I believe, get to participate in Idol Gives Back, the show's now annual telethon to raise money for global poverty.

The Top 4 is the spot where, more often than not, the shocker of the season happens. Tamyra Gray in Season 1, LaToya London in Season 3 and Chris Daughtry in Season 5 all got booted in this week, stunning millions.

The Top 3 get to sing for Clive Davis, the legendary record producer. And to get to do that is like an audition unto itself, bigger than almost anything the show can render because to catch his ear is to bypass the need for a spot in the finale. Elliot Yamin is a perfect example of this, having impressed Davis so much that his future was in tact the minute he was eliminated.

Of course, the Top 2 means you're in the finale, and Idol fans can recite the twosomes from all seasons. Kelly and Justin. Ruben and Clay. Fantasia and Diana. Carrie and Bo. Taylor and Katharine. Jordin and Blake.

So, here is my official prediction for American Idol, Season 7, as to where this year's Top 12 will finish. I'll offer reasons why. I'll offer comparisons to past contestants. And I'll offer my thoughts on their chances for future success.

Each week, I'll rank them again, but based on weekly performance as opposed to this one-time overview. Post your Top 12 in the comments below.

American Idol Top 12 Official Predictions:

No. 12: Kristy Lee Cook. If she were to be more appealing to the country voting bloc, she could cruise. And if she makes her performances more twangy, she might. However, this former Arista Nashville signee just doesn't have much charisma.

Reminds me of: Nobody in particular, and this isn't a positive.

Chance of success outside of Idol: Oddly enough, I think she has an extraordinary chance in country music, with the right writers and producers. Country music has proven they can make a star out of any Idol.

***

No. 11: Chikeze Eze. When he sings the right song, his voice is terrific, but he's very hit and miss. And he suffers from a major charisma deficiency, just like Cook.

Reminds me of: Charles Grigsby from Season 2.

Chance of success outside of Idol: None. He has to win.

***

No. 10: Michael Johns. This might surprise you, but while the Aussie expatriate has plenty of charisma, his vocals aren't that good. Every time he sings Simple Minds and Randy Jackson refers to how the late, great Michael Hutchence sang it (he didn't) proves to me that Johns isn't connecting with anything the typical music lover would be interested in.

Reminds me of: Matt Rogers from Season 3 and Chris Sleigh from Season 6.

Chance of success outside of Idol: His best shot isn't in music. It's in television or modeling.

***

No. 9: Syesha Mercado. Again, this one might be a surprise, but to those of us who have worked as musicians for years and years, she's not that great a singer. Her insistence on singing songs done by the greats will end her run sooner rather than later.

Reminds me of: Nadia Turner from Season 4 but only because of the hair.

Chance of success outside of Idol: Tremendous potential, actually, but not in music. She is a shoo-in to be a television host somewhere.

***

No. 8: Amanda Overmyer. By this point in the competition, the rockin' nurse will have overstayed her welcome. We will all be glad to see her go; however, the blues bar rock bloc might keep her around like they did when Nikki McKibben vaulted to the Top 3 in Season 1.

Reminds me of: McKibben and a bit of Jessica Sierra from a couple years ago.

Chance of success outside of Idol: None. She has to win.

***

No. 7: David Hernandez. Personally, I think Hernandez is at least worthy of the Top 4, vocally. However, he has a big, theatrical style, one that turned off voters in Season 3 when they voted out Hudson. Unless he earns passes from voters for some brilliant early performances, he could be a mild elimination shocker at the 7-spot.

Reminds me of: Sam Harris. Not as good, but he's got the potential. Yes, I know Harris was never an Idol contestant, so I might say Elliot Yamin in that he can really, really sing when he's on point.

Chance of success outside of Idol: Right now, wonderful. TMZ reported Thursday that industry publishers have already started commissioning songs for him and David Archuleta, noting that most writers are not interested in anyone else. This is a good sign for the former gay club stripper.

***

No. 6: Jason Castro. This guy is not my cup of tea, musically. However, he appeals to many in his originality, both musically and in terms of personality. He has a kind, hippie type of vibe about him, and he sings like an indie-pop act.

Reminds me of: Chris Richardson from Season 6 in that he has a high voice and was very hit and miss.

Chance of success outside of Idol: Fair. I think he could spend the rest of his days without a real job, just working in music. However, I'm not sure he'll ever be as famous as he is today.

***

No. 5: Brooke White. White is much more aligned with what I like musically. Acoustic. She plays the guitar. She's sort of folkie. However, is she a serious act, or is she a church camp worship leader? I can't really tell, and think eventually -- without continued A-plus performances -- she'll wear down. Plus, that she would be one of four white people left and two Mormons remaining in the competition at this point will divide votes.

Reminds me of: Nobody. I think she's an original, at least for this show.

Chance of success outside of Idol: Not bad. For her type of music, she could branch out on her own rather easily. However, her writing will have to be super strong to build any momentum among folk or indie-pop fans, who value composition strongly.

***

No. 4: Carly Smithson. This would be your seasonal shocker. More than likely, Carly will have three or four performances that leave Idol fans speechless. And, I think her elimination will, too. But it happens every year.

Reminds me of: LaToya London in that she's married and is a bit blase. And that she'll be eliminated here.

Chance of success outside of Idol: Not good. After MCA blew $2.5 million on Carly back in 2001, other record companies will likely pass. She will have to go at music on her own, and while it's possible she could develop a devoted fan base, it's not likely without "corporate sponsorship."

***

No. 3: Ramiele Malubay. I think she's a sleeper because her voice is good. She's completely unoffensive. She's the little cutie who can, and it served Diana DeGarmo and Jasmine Trias very well in seasons past.

Reminds me of: Jasmine Trias, totally.

Chance of success outside of Idol: Wonderful, but not in America. She'll be a million-seller in the Phillipines, Polynesia, etc., just like Trias is. Trust me, she'll be huge in parts of the world most kids can't identify on a map.

***

No. 2: David Cook. This is a hunch. I suspect there is a new voting bloc for Season 7, and it's called the Chris Daughtry Revenge Voter. Cook did enough with Lionel Richie's "Hello" last night, playing a loud rock guitar, to convince me he will appeal to the adult contemporary rock crowd, the folks who liked Daughtry in the first place back in 2006. He will have to be consistent though.

Reminds me of: Chris Daughtry, sort of.

Chance of success outside of Idol: Because of Daughtry, I definitely believe some label will take a gamble with the Tulsa native.

***

No. 1: David Archuleta. If you have read nothing up to this point, please pay attention right now. In Season 4, based on articles written after the fact, Carrie Underwood became the most dominant winner of American Idol ever, perhaps not finishing out of the Top 2 each and every week of the season.

Carrie dominated the country voter. She dominated the tween and teenybopper voter, and Simon Cowell ordained her as the future champ about four weeks into the finals process. If one looks at the fan base she had and the one that Archuleta has developed, a similar scenario awaits.

No, Archuleta won't dominate the country voter. However, with the likely absence of a country presence should Cook go early, he will dominate the wholesome, family-values crowd. He will annihilate the tween and teenybopper voter unlike anybody in this show's history. And he will win Idol comfortably.

The big difference between Season 4 and Season 7 is that Idol fans can visit sites like DialIdol.com to see how contestants generally fare in terms of votes. It's not perfect, but it's fairly accurate as far as the site's track record for predicting eliminations.

Furthermore, if fans believe he is dominating things, given his over-the-top cutesiness, there is likely to be a pop culture backlash -- a sort of schadenfreude that envelopes the kid, with people across the country hoping for him to stumble.

And because he's so young, relative to his competition, this is a possibility. However, Archuleta is sickeningly savvy for somebody his age, and I suspect he takes everything Simon Cowell says to heart because not for one minute do I think this kid has any intention of coming in second.

Sure, none of them intend on losing. However, the boy has been bred to be a machine, and Cowell will guide him like Obi-Wan Kenobi did Luke Skywalker in "Star Wars." At this point, the show's producers intend for him to win, and the people at 19 Entertainment have already started preparing for his coronation.

Too soon? Hell, yes, it's too soon. There's a lot of ball to be played between now and the end of May.

However, there are only a handful of singers who can beat him: Cook, Smithson, White and -- with an outside chance -- Hernandez. I assure you; everybody else is a pretender relative to winning the Idol title. Total pretender.

Likewise, I assure you that how the Top 12 fall has less to do with talent and performance than it does with how people have already aligned themselves in terms of fanship. Like in a presidential election, the candidate who raises the most money and who has the most people on the ground working for him or her the earliest usually develops insurmountable momentum.

Think Hillary or Barack.

And Archuleta is the Barack Obama of this competition. It's totally his to lose.