Five left. And they all think they have a chance.

American Idol's 7th season is winding down with more of a whimper than a bang, particularly if you've seen the ratings. Still the best ratings on TV, but it's clear changes are a must. Or it's clear Idol only has a handful of seasons left.

But these three young men and two young women still singing their hearts out for America's votes all believe they have a shot to win this competition. And they'd be dead wrong.

Only David Archuleta and David Cook have any shot at all to win Idol in 2008. Nevertheless, I have five scenarios for the Final 5, the only viable scenarios remaining this season -- ranked in order from least likely to most likely.

5. Syesha Mercado sneaks into a finale against David Archuleta.

I call this the Diana DeGarmo scenario. In Season 3, DeGarmo weathered Jennifer Hudson and LaToya London to back into a finale spot versus eventual winner, Fantasia Barrino.

Should Brooke White or Jason Castro be eliminated this week, doubtful given that this is Neil Diamond week (surely spelling the end for Mercado), we're left with a scenario that next week isn't one custom fit for frontrunner David Cook.

The shockers happen in 4th place, right? Tamyra Gray. Chris Daughtry.

At that point, Syesha would be in a three-way competition with Archuleta and either Brooke or Jason, a massive edge come the week that Clive Davis picks a song. With only three left, singers get to sing two of their best and belt a monster ballad, and it's a position suited to Syesha.

Don't think she makes it past this week, but if she does, watch out. I absolutely could see her in a finale, getting waxed by David Archuleta. But I could see other scenarios even more.

4. Jason Castro sneaks into a finale against David Cook.

Let's say Syesha and Brooke go down in order the next two weeks and fans of those two blame their respective demise on the little one, tiny Mr. Archuleta. Let's say they collude to vote for the underdog in the Final 3.

In my scenario, this would be Jason Castro, and I call it the Blake Lewis scenario. Lewis had no business knocking out Melinda Doolittle last year but did, and one of the big reasons why was because fans of ousted contestants swung votes to the underdog in the Final 3.

It wouldn't matter as Cook would destroy Jason in a finale.

3. Castro backs into finale against Archuleta.

In this scenario, which I call the Bo Bice scenario, the super original long-hair steps it up just enough in the wake of a major upset (which would have to be Cook's ouster) to grab his piece of a finale.

Let's say Jason does a song in the Final 3 with just vocal and guitar and no strings, no synths, nothing but the raw talent. I say he has a shot.

Nonetheless, it wouldn't matter come finale week as Archuleta would manhandle him in the voting.

2. David Cook beats David Archuleta in the finale -- or -- 1. David Archuleta beats David Cook in the finale.

These last two scenarios are by far the most likely, and it would all depend on song choice. Bottom line is that if David Archuleta sings "Imagine" as his final song in the finale, he wins.

End of story.

But if David Cook belts out Chris Cornell's version of "Billie Jean" or Doxology's version of "Eleanor Rigby," then he has a shot.

The key is in who goes last.

Like the Romans were back in the day, we Idol viewers are pretty easily swayed. And should the winner of that coin flip choose to go first, it would equal the mistake made by Brutus at Caesar's funeral when he gave Mark Antony the floor.

Regardless, in all likelihood, that twosome will be the two Davids.

And I think who wins at this point could come down to who sings last.