If you'll recall, I was interviewed for this USA Today cover story back in January.

Well, writer Bill Keveney interviewed me again this past weekend about Michael Johns' exit. It seems the direction of the piece pertained to what a surprise it was that the Aussie was sent packing last week.

Unfortunately, Keveney didn't use our interview, something I'm completely empathetic to given my understanding of how article writing goes. You write a piece, and it flows, and you get what you need, and sometimes you don't have time to put it all in there.

However, count me in as one who was NOT surprised about Michael Johns' elimination. Perhaps that's why our conversation wasn't included in the piece. Regardless, it's another excellent read from Keveney, but in case you're curious as to what I had to say, I'm posting our discussion below:

Q: Are you surprised by Michael's elimination? If so or if not, why?

A: Not shocked, but mildly surprised. Historically, the first singing position -- and he sang first on Tuesday -- is the worst spot producers can give you.

People who don't use DVRs to record the show and don't get home in time for the show miss those first couple of performances, and that hurts when it comes time for voting. Furthermore, I don't think Michael ever developed the fan base one might have thought he would have. I thought he might eek his way into the Top 6 or 5, but Thursday's elimination didn't qualify as a shocker for me.

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Q: Do you have any theories on why he was eliminated, since some people thought he was one of the favorites?

A: I never once thought he was a favorite, at least once we got to the Top 12. It's been my opinion since the first week of the Top 24 that this competition has been David Archuleta's to lose. He's been the perfect storm for the Idol voting machine: Appeals to tweens and teens, who vote vigorously, and he's not untalented. In fact, the only shocker to me this season would be if Archuleta were eliminated.

I would be willing to bet that, behind the scenes, Idol producers are struggling to keep this season interesting because everything I've seen indicates that this competition is a runaway the likes of which Carrie Underwood pulled off in Season 4.

David Cook would be a mild shocker at this stage, too. However, I think Michael Johns' elimination came at the hands of not only his singing position but at also at the hands of dumb luck. With Idol, it's never an indication of talent where the singers are eliminated, it's a reflection of fan base.

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Q: In terms of surprising Idol eliminations over the years, where does this rank?

A: I don't believe it's a surprise at all. Johns was a good singer, a nice enough person. However, so was Jennifer Hudson, and she was eliminated in 7th place. Not that I think Johns has that type of career ahead of him, either. I'm actually surprised that anybody might think this a surprise.

In the past couple of weeks, both Syesha Mercado and Kristi Lee Cook have gained momentum with audiences. Perhaps it's that they fill musical niches -- light R&B and country -- or perhaps they have started to resonate with people who vote. And unless she starts to wow America, I fully expect another "favorite," Carly Smithson, to be eliminated in the next couple of weeks.

At the end of the day, an Idol winner is built on the shoulders of a fan base willing to vote week after week regardless of performance. Johns had some good performances and certainly not many bad ones. However, he also had only one great performance, the one during Dolly Parton's week on the show. And, I don't think he ever developed that nationwide fan base required to keep you on the show.

I would compare it to Chris Sligh's elimination in 10th place in Season 6. Chris was a guy many people thought stood a chance to win the whole thing during the audition phase of the program but who lost momentum gradually during the Top 24 part of the show.

I thought of a better comparison: Constantine Maroulis in Season 4. He was marginal in terms of talent, although he actually had a pretty hefty fan base. He had also never sniffed the Bottom 3 and was eliminated in 6th place, before most folks thought he'd go.

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Q: Have you heard anything from other fans? What are they saying?

A: Haven't heard a thing, and that's what's perhaps most telling. One person said she was sad to see him go but that she had a good idea his days on Idol were numbered. The fact that there isn't major buzz about his elimination, outrage even, is a good indication that this is not a shocker.

In fact, I can tell you all the shockers in Idol history: Tamyra Gray, Jennifer Hudson, LaToya London, Chris Daughtry, Melinda Doolittle. That's it. No other shockers. Some mild surprises, but these are the only instances in which an Idol elimination sparked outrage or debate.

Thoughts? Am I way off base on this one?