While American Idol Season 6 is fast becoming the Melinda Doolittle highlight show, it's no guarantee she'd be a commercial success. All one has to do is look at Taylor Hicks' reign as Idol champ to realize that popularity on the show means little in the real world.

On the other hand, Daughtry is poised to end the year with the best-selling CD, just a year or so removed from Carrie Underwood's quintuple-platinum effort.

In an industry full of falling figures, Idol has produced the commercial cash cows of the past two fiscal years and, really, three of the past five if one considers Kelly Clarkson's enormous success.

Nevertheless, Idol is equally known for its bombs.

Taylor Hicks. Bo Bice. Tamyra Gray. Justin Guarini. Diana DeGarmo.

To be fair to both Gray, whose album was really good, and DeGarmo, whose wasn't, both Idol alums were never born for commercial success. They were born for the Broadway stage. When one considers the success that Jennifer Hudson has had on the silver screen, not to mention Fantasia's upcoming stage debut in "The Color Purple," it could be said that Idol's reach goes beyond CDs in terms of how we should evaluate the success of the show's contestants.

However, watching Melinda Doolittle tonight, I'm not convinced she'll be a commercial success in anything other than gospel. Heck, it works for the Winans, for Smokie Norful, and they all make terrific albums, even if they're not mega-billionaires, selling 5 million CDs each.

On the other hand, I do think Jordin Sparks and Gina Glocksen could transform into multi-platinum solo artists with the right team. There's no guarantee either singer will survive long enough to get the appropriate exposure required to start the Idol machine, but they're young, talented and all about today.

Melinda is great, but she's an old soul. A brilliant singer who might only appeal commercially to a thirtysomething, fortysomething crowd. Just a hunch on my part.

Hey, our money spends like anybody else's, right?

Yes, however, we don't spend our disposable money on music unless it's great. Younger folks will dole out $17.99 on just about anything.

Given that the industry that markets to younger folks is way more about image than anything else, I'd say that the music business shouldn't be surprised if Doolittle eventually disappoints while Glocksen and Sparks end up the commercial class of Season 6.