College Football Stretch-Run Predictions
1 Comments Ryan Welton on Sunday, November 04, 2007 at 1:13 PM.Rarely was a college football game so easy to predict.
My prediction: OU 41, Texas A&M 14
Final score: OU 42, Texas A&M 14
The big win was a routine win, and in the grueling jaunt to a national championship, you gotta have some routine big ones. However, before I foretell OU's fortune the rest of the way out, I'll make some observations from Saturday night's win.
1. Sam Bradford isn't nearly as good as we thought he was.
Oh, he's adequate, and he'll only get better. However, the notion that Sam was ready for his Heisman pose as a freshman is ludicrous. Against the Ags, he looked downright pedestrian, missing open receivers and not nearly as sharp on the long ball as he was early in the season. It's still like Malcolm Kelly is the invisible man.
No, I'm not calling for Keith Nichol to step in. That's crazy. But we have to recognize that Sam's youth and inexperience at quarterback are a liability right now. On the other hand, he's still darned good for a freshman.
2. Big kudos to Kevin Wilson.
It damn near brought a tear to my eye. Our offensive coordinator had a speck of creativity. All ribbing aside, Wilson has been pretty solid about adding a couple of twists and turns to the scheme, and putting DeMarco Murray at QB with the option to handoff or run is really, really smart.
Furthermore, the three-tight-end formation was a killer against the Aggies. I would need to watch the film to see if Sam went to Gresham (who had four scores on Saturday), Finley or Eldridge each time that formation was used, but if we will be sure to do multiple things from this formation, it could be deadly.
Predictions:
You asked for them. You'll get them. So, how will the rest of Oklahoma's season play out?
First, I should note that I'm typically terrible about predicting games, at least in terms of score. Second, no wagering allowed. If you bet based on what I say, you're crazy.
Baylor at OU. Last time the Bears came to Norman, they pushed us to overtime. Baylor had just commissioned new uniforms and helmets, which they unfortunately abandoned, and they played like world-beaters on Owen Field. We were lucky to win.
However, if you'll recall last season's win in Waco, it was ugly. Ugly. Ugly. Ugly.
Athletically and in terms of offensive scheme, I think Baylor is more talented than A&M. That's a real indictment of the Ags, and that Guy Morriss is a better coach than Franchione could mean we'll face a more creative game plan.
However, I think our secondary can withstand it, and I don't think our offense will have any problem scoring. A 51-10 win sounds about right.
OU at Texas Tech Three weeks ago, I would have told you there was no way we beat the Red Raiders at their place. Mike Leach's bunch though hit a rough patch, losing to a mediocre Colorado team in Lubbock.
Still, I am fairly confident Oklahoma's shot at a national title ends in two weeks. Three reasons: a) Oklahoma is terrible on the road this year. Terrible. b) The spread offense is too much for our pass defense. c) Mike Leach is a brilliant play caller, and -- again -- my level of confidence in Brent Venables' ability to make in-game adjustments against somebody two steps ahead of him is limited.
On the other hand, a tip here, a bounce there, and Oklahoma could find a way to win the turnover battle in Lubbock. That would be a life-saver, and it is most certainly possible. We've gone into Jones Stadium before and fought off a worthy Tech attack; however, our last trip there still stings something fierce.
Let's just say this: We'll be super lucky to get out of West Texas with a win. However, it's possible. For the moment, give me Tech 30, OU 27.
OSU at OU Texas' comeback against Oklahoma State effectively ended the Pokes' shot at a BCS bowl. Sure, they would have had to win the Big 12 to get there, but the improvement shown by the Cowboys gave their fans a bit of faith.
And while the Bedlam rivalry is something to behold in Oklahoma, I don't fear the Pokes. As much as I bitch and moan about our defensive coach at times, I really believe OSU's liability is at head coach. There is a real lack of focus with this OSU team, and the dropoff from Les Miles to Gundy, to me, is stunning.
Not up for Troy. Up for Tech. Up for Texas but can't maintain focus. The Pokes are just all over the place, and what's scary is that they have the athletic talent to compete for the Big 12 title. In fact, in an e-mail I can document if requested, I said OU and OSU would play for the Big 12 South title this year.
That theoretically would still happen if Tech beats us and OSU wins out. A fired up OSU team is generally to be feared. However, on the road, in front of our fans, I just don't see the Pokes hanging with Oklahoma for more than a half.
My gut hunch says we're up 14-7 at half. We score a field goal on an early third-quarter possession to make it 17-7, and we get a defensive TD to make it 24-7. That's when OSU folds. We score two late and win 38-7.
Right now, OSU is finding ways to lose. But athletically, just in terms of talent, the Pokes are absolutely on par with the best of the conference.
Kansas vs, Oklahoma Well, at this point, we'd be playing in the Big 12 Championship Game against, more than likely, Kansas. If Kansas beats Missouri, and we lose to Texas Tech, the Jayhawks could be playing the Sooners for a shot to play for a national title.
However, before we cringe at the thought of losing to Kansas in a Big 12 title game, let me point out a couple of opinions about KU. First, they're scarier defensively than offensively. I haven't seen how their stats have played out this year, but I know that last year, they were like in the Top 5 nationwide defensively.
And while Kansas scored 76 on Nebraska, Mark Mangino's offense isn't that scary. They're effective and efficient, but it's not like they're running the Missouri spread. That's the crap that will kill Oklahoma. Bottom line, if Oklahoma takes care of the football, we can win this game -- which is played in San Antonio and NOT Kansas City -- using just our base offense and defense.
Going with the proverbial gut hunch, I like Oklahoma to win that match up 27-17.
What sucks is that we're again in the position to play in the Fiesta Bowl against an up-and-comer, which means we won't be playing a glamorous team. We'll play another Boise State-like team, meaning we'll be very vulnerable to the embarrassing upset.
The two most likely matchups?
Oklahoma vs. Hawaii. Oklahoma vs. Connecticut.
Seriously. I think that sucks, and there has to be something done such that other bowls share the burden of having to take on these lesser football schools. Hey, you might say, why is this a problem? It's not like Oklahoma could beat Boise State last year.
You're right. However, beat the Boises of the world, and everybody says no biggie. You should have. Lose to them, and everybody gets a chuckle at your expense. The Fiesta Bowl should be renamed the no-win bowl.
Quick football non-sequiturs:
I'm dead serious when I say this. If Oklahoma could work out a deal to join the SEC, I think this would be a prime time to do it. Trade Arkansas for Oklahoma straight up. It would be more challenging, but I think OU athletics would benefit from it significantly.
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College football writers will have to look closely at Lloyd Carr for national coach of the year if Michigan beats Ohio State. Having lost to Appalachian State 36-34 in a game that actually took some of the burden off Oklahoma for having lost to Boise State last season, Michigan was the laughing stock of college football.
But after starting 0-2, they have rolled off win after win after win. Michigan might decide to fire Carr after this season; they might have already decided. However, I think it's a big mistake unless they were able to land Les Miles, who is a terrific coach. Fact is, Michigan could end up the year with only two losses, a Top 5 finish (theoretically) and back-to-back 11-2 years.
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So, who do I think will end up playing in the national title? Well, LSU is a master of good fortune, and they have won the close games. All except one. Heck, it seems as if LSU is in a battle for their lives each week. On the other hand, I think Ohio State has proven itself to be the best team in the country. A year after losing Ted Ginn and Troy Smith, the Buckeyes are actually better.
My wet dream would be Oklahoma vs. Oregon for all the marbles. Believe you me, Oregon does not want that. If you know the back story, then you'd understand.
However, destiny is destiny, and I think Ohio State and LSU play for it all, and the Buckeyes win.
So, them's my predictions. Your thoughts?
Well... not what I wanted to hear, but I think you are correct. I think we will be in the same position at the end of the year as we were last year... playing some suck-ass team. The sad part is we will probably lose.
I am going to try and stay positive however.