Prediction: David Archuleta Gets Eliminated From Idol *This Week*
22 Comments Ryan Welton on Monday, May 05, 2008 at 10:05 PM.
Just more than two months ago, I proclaimed that David Archuleta would win Season 7 of American Idol.
Specifically, I wrote:
Here's the deal with "the kid" though. Not only do I think David Archuleta wins American Idol, I think he becomes the show's first legitimate male pop star.
He'll do Broadway. He'll have a legitimate hit record on mainstream radio. He'll be on TV. He is essentially a perfect pop star, and here's why I think this competition is o-v-e-r.
I still believe everything I wrote except for one thing: David Archuleta will not win American Idol.
He'll be eliminated this week.
First, I should note that I hope I'm wrong. I like the kid. He's not my cup of tea musically, but he has a tremendous vocal gift, a natural talent that I think surpasses the rest of the group. With the right kind of music, preferably a little more soulful, I could dig him enough to at least listen to a David Archuleta CD.
However, I've always maintained that if this competition is about vocal talent, Idol should have ended in February.
But it's not, and we all know it. And we accept it.
Heck, David got a ringing endorsement, I think, from none other than Taylor Hicks who told a newspaper reporter that he's pulling for Arch and that he reminds him of a young Wayne Newton.
I think it was a spot-on observation, although I still think a comparison to Donny Osmond is still much more a propos at this juncture in the kid's career. While I can envision Archuleta in Vegas, I'm not sure a nightclub act would be his thing.
Secondly, I've never once picked the Idol correctly from the start of the season, so I'd like to be right for a change. Heck, eight, nine weeks ago, I truly thought Archuleta was a lock to win, but along the way:
David Cook stepped it up, big time. And if you look at the voting trends over the past four weeks, according to DialIdol.com, Cook is the solid frontrunner.
... and ...
Syesha Mercado went Broadway. Don't look now, but the biggest mover the past three weeks not only in terms of DialIdol.com but in terms of Web buzz is Mercado. She's found her niche with the Broadway vibe, and she represents what Idol has traditionally been about the previous six seasons -- a big-voiced female balladeer with a good look.
Jordin Sparks had her up weeks and down weeks last year but didn't turn it on with voters until the very end. To discount what Mercado is doing right now in terms of converting the voting masses is not to be dismissed.
After a pretty good Neil Diamond week performance, Archuleta struggled on DialIdol.com's Tuesday night polling. Despite being beside Brooke White when she was eliminated, Syesha was not in the Bottom Two.
Ryan Seacrest never even intimated it, and I suspect Archuleta was actually in that second bottom spot. Actually, it could have been Jason Castro; however, I suspect it was pretty close. Call me a cynic, but I think that producers weren't on the up and up (and I'm presuming heavily here that I'm right) about who was in the Bottom Two, leading to some level of comfort among Archuleta's fan base in particular.
Couple with that the fact that this week is Rock-n-Roll Hall of Fame week, meaning Cook and Castro *should* coast given the breadth of material suited to them available, and I think Archuleta is prime, prime, prime for the shocker of all shockers.
Sure, could Archuleta's fan base get it together and come through. However, I suspect that fan base is eroding a bit. Let's face facts: While Archuleta is probably the most naturally gifted (heavy dose of opinion, of course), he has yet to improve on his performance of "Imagine" 10 or so weeks ago.
Furthermore, in the musical arrangement department, his efforts have been as uncool as can be. Meanwhile, his competitors are pulling out some unique (albeit copied) arrangements, a subtle ploy to sway fans. It gives them a sense of uniqueness and originality.
Last and possibly most important, devoted fans of past eliminees have seemingly sided with people other than Archuleta. I wouldn't say that I think his castmates hate him; I don't think that at all. He seems to be extremely likeable, personally.
But it has to be hard to swallow for a cool guy like David Cook that the "David" Natasha Bedingfield wanted to hug on national TV wasn't you.
In my deepest gut of reality-show guts, I smell a massive shocker coming. This week. I think producers know it's a possibility, and while I wouldn't suggest they're hoping for it -- I would absolutely suggest they're aware of it.
Yeah, I hope I'm wrong because I'd like for my Web prediction at the start of the finals to come true. If you're going to be the Idol expert, you have to come through on the champ at least one year.
On the other hand, I'm a pretty fair reader of trends. Stats. Past seasons and what happened each episode and how other "shockers" happened.
And this week has all the makings of a stunner.
Labels: American Idol, brooke white, david archuleta, david cook, Idol, jason castro, ryan seacrest, syesha mercado
I think you are dead wrong. I do not see a shocker elimination this week. David Archuleta is the best vocalist of season 7, and combined with his boyish good looks and genuinely nice and humble personality, I don't see him going home. I do see Cook's appeal and wouldn't be completely surprised if he wins, but David will definitely be in the top 3, probably top 2.
I'm predicting a possible shocker this week too. Only, I think it could be the other David, David Cook. Why? Because his weakest performance during the Top Twelve has been while performing within his own genre: singing a song from his favorite band Our Lady Peace during Idol Gives Back week. (Dialidol had him placed low that week in a much larger field of competitors.) His so-called originality is missing when he's singing his own type of material. If he stays true to himself and ventures outside the Idol box this week, he'll risk getting voted off. If he compromises and takes the rock lite approach, he'll probably be safe, but setting himself up as a sell-out. Rock 'n Roll night could actually end up working to the advantage of the other Idols, including David Archuleta. This time they will be the ones taking on a particular genre and shaping it to showcase their talents. By the way, out of last week's 45 million or so votes cast, Dialidol only accounted for 7/10th's of 1 percent of them, hardly reliable statiscally speaking. Although it's fun to check out that site (I mean, who can resist), the week that it was really wrong - the week that Christy Lee Cook was voted off -they were actually suggesting that she didn't receive the lowest number of votes and that Idol producers colluded to have her kicked off! Another website claiming to be in the know, ZabaSearch, said that Sayesha Mercado had the lowest number of votes last week, just the opposite of Dialidol. Finally, these "trends" that you are noticing do not take into account the increasing number of text votes being cast by Castro and Archuleta fans. Time will tell who is right. I hope that you are wrong about this week, but right in your initial prediction that David Archuleta will be the next American Idol!
I would merely like to point out that DialIdol does not take into account text voting and as a it result has been massively wrong in the past!
Also, just because the bottom two was not announced doesn't mean that David Archuleta is in any more danger than David Cook, who could just have easily been in the bottom 2. Although I cannot speak for the US public as a whole, you should also know that hardcore DA fans have considered the possibility that David may have been in this group, and are planning on voting considerably more.
In defense of David Cook, I think he is bound to know why Natasha Bedingfield was keen to greet DA, and would therefore not be that jealous! DA lists Natasha as a musical influence and she had been informed of this on television prior to the show. (Unfortunately I can't remember which show she was on).
I apologise for the overly long comment - but bloggers realy should do their homework before commenting!
Maybe it will be the other David?
I think you are looking at Dial Idol as the source of your information. I think you are missing that Dial Idol only records the busy signals from the people that use its equipment.
Dial Idol can't record cell phone calls or from texting.
I wouldn't draw any conclusions from data from Dial Idol. I think you may want to visit vote#1.com for a realistic view.
Anonymous, I completely understand DialIdol.com and how it works. It's called sampling, and it has been devastatingly accurate the past three years. Precise? No. But generally accurate, yes.
I think you have a lot of valid points. Although I have been a David Archuleta supporter from day 1, I agree that he hasn't shown the same level of improvement of some of the other contestants. And I think he has been surviving off of a fanbase that is increasing the number of votes per person and not gaining any new fans. This is a dangerous position to be in. This week's performance will be the determining factor as to how accurate your theory is. If simply must have the best performance of the bunch in order to survive.
Jason and David A. have the most motivated fanbases. If there is a suprise elimination this week it will be David Cook. He doesn't have as many people texting their fingers off for hours as either Jason or David A.! Dial Idol has been way off all year. It doesn't count texting, and I can promise you that is where most of David A.and Jason's votes are coming from.
I'm hearing that Dial Idol was handed a lawsuit by the producers of American Idol from a VERY RELIABLE SOURCE. If there is no accuracy, then why sue them? Also, David A.'s fan base is the most stagnant. It started out big, but it hasn't grown as much. That is to say that potentially, from departed contestants, he has the least chance of gaining their voters. He could possibly share some younger fans with Jason Castro, but those voters will be struggling to save Jason this week because of Paula's gaffe last week. Plus, I think Cook's fans, though an majorly older demographic, will be working overtime to save his butt this week because of what happened to Chris Daughtry at this same time Season 5.
It's not because I'm a David Cook fan, but you've perked my antennas up with this analysis. This is very, very possible.
I also think you are dead wrong. If you are basing your opinion on the dial idol numbers I think you are in for a shock. Dial Idol last week had a total of like 350,000 votes wile on the show Ryan Seacrest stated there were like 45 million votes or some number like that. Wake up. All that dial idol proves with its numbers is that more David Cook,Jason,and Syssha fans use this dialer over David Archuleta fans...Wake up and smell the coffee
Oh shut up david a is the best thing that ever happend to AI.
FYI, on the rehearsals, Natasha Bedingfield performed twice before going live, and Seacrest introduced her by saying "David Archuleta's crush," so David Cook knew beforehand that she was going for little David.
Don't assume too much also.
I really don't think the show can afford to lose David Cook or David Archuleta before the finale, but especially David Cook! Most people I know look forward to seeing what Cook will pull out of his musical pocket to dazzle us. Archuleta has gotten very predictable, but I think he's the only one who could give Cook a run for his money in the finale. I actually disagree that Archuleta is the most gifted and that Cook is the overachiever, though. I think Cook's beaten Archuleta on musicality AND straight up vocals. This week will be a tough one for Cook, though, being the frontrunner is a lot of pressure. And maybe Archuleta will step it up now that Cook has taken the frontrunner pressure off of him. Also, don't count out Castro...he's primed for a comeback!
Are you aware that dialidol accounts for less than 1% of the total votes? I realize you are not a statitician, but it should be obvious to anyone that a sample of 300,000 votes out of over 45,000,000 does not yield a valid result. With text votes surging this year, dialidol is no longer an accurate predictor of total votes (actually, it never was). There are NO accurate predictors, although I must say that votenumber1.com has been pretty darn on the point this season.
The shocker will be that David Archuleta will most likely win American Idol in spite of the relentless over-pimpage of David Cook. How sweet it will be to see David conquer Goliath.
Actually, Maddie, 1 percent is plenty for a sampling. It's done in politics all the time. VoteNumber1.com appears to merely be a survey site ... whereas DialIdol is more like an "exit poll," comprised of people willing to let their votes be known after the fact.
For the record: I hope I'm wrong. I'm pullin' for the kid. However, DialIdol has actually been super strong as a predictor of trends in this competition over the years.
We'll see.
oh come now people. David A. and David C. are shoe-ins for long, successful careers with or without winning AI. That said, I think the biggest shocker this season was loosing Carly. Man, that woman can SING!!
I think Jason needs to walk this week (and also needs a good hairbrush and some de-tangler :>)
Finalists will probably be D&D unless the earth moves sideways between now and then....
I think DA is almost too nice/innocent for this business, but maybe he'll survive it intact. He seems uncomfortable with the swooning girlies. I think once he blossoms a bit he'll develop a style all his own. Maybe he's not really exploring that to it's fullest extent yet?
David C. is already firmly adjusted as his own "man" where being an artist is concerned. He has wonderful stage presence and is ready for the big league.
Brenda
I don't care which David to be the American Idol after all. They are both extremely good.
Got a lot of attention from that post, didn't you Ryan. Can't go wrong bashing on the 17 yr old kid, can you? Just like all the entertainment media lemmings making a living off the most talented young entertainer of our generation.
DC fan base picked up somewhat with Carly's & MJ's exit but DA's will jump extraordinarily b/c of Brooke's exit. Also, DA's fan base got a wake up call last week with Dial Idol numbers (valid or not).
Congratulations! You have finally predicted the first American Idol winner. Way to go!
You might want to stop that train before it gets out of control there, anonymous. "The most talented performer of our generation?" Hey, I dig Idol as a show and all, but you might want to slow down there just a tad ...
Even though David COOK is the obvious frontrunner, and everyone knows it, hoestly i think that it will NOT be David Archuleta who leaves us this week. I think that it is most likely going to be Syesha and the top 3 is going to be all guys. I luv Syesha, and she has incredible vocal talent, but she really isn't that popular compared to the other contestants. Besides, Idol is a popularity contest...isn't it?
Well, David Archuleta DID have an outstanding week during 'rock and roll' week! Simon said, "David, you didn't beat the competition tonight, you CRUSHED the competition." His 'Stand By Me' was great and his 'Love Me Tender' was out of this world.
Here's what an eonline reporter who saw the performances said: "But tonight, sitting in the live audience at Idol, I came to the realization that no matter who you are or what your age, when you hear David Archuleta in person, it is hard not to admit: He is so undeniably talented—WITH A VOICE SO FLAWLESS AND DYNAMIC AND PURE, IT ACTUALLY RESONATES IN YOUR SOUL—that he probably most deserves to be the winner of this year's American Idol. (It would explain why HE GOT THE ONLY FULL-AUDIENCE STANDING O's of the night—and TWO of them, at that!)" [my emphasis]
My prediction is that David Archuleta wins. A LOT of his fans have switched to texting because you can get in more votes. Dialidol does not capture those votes, only those who sign up on their site.
I've voted as many as 975 times on my land line on a single night but am switching to texting to get in greater numbers. I bought a phone and unlimited texting package specifically to vote for David A. People are donating money to buy these phones to give to David's supporters for voting. None of this shows up on Dialidol.
David A's fans are rabidly devoted to him. We'll go to the wall for our guy! Archuleta for the win!!
A reporter who has been following and writing on Idol this year said he has been polling black voters who have been backing Syesha. He said they are breaking 80-20 for David Archuleta over Cook.
If David Archuleta chooses the right songs for the finale (we KNOW he'll perform well) and this guy's research is accurate, it looks good for Archie!
With that exquisite voice, the endearing charm, cute face, and his ability to improvise as he sings so that every time he sings a song it comes out different, David A. definitely DESERVES to win Idol!
Archuleta for the win!