By the time we get to the Top 10 men on American Idol, some patterns emerge.

Brandon Rogers is blowing his opportunity unlike possibly anybody in the show's history by literally repeating history. His run and likely early exit from Idol is mirroring that of Nadia Turner two years ago.

Turner was cool, stylistic and damned talented, but she picked terrible songs week after week. Well, she'd pick good songs but then arrange them terribly, such as when she did a punk version of "Time After Time" while sporting a hideous mohawk -- all in the name of being an individual.

Tonight, Rogers selected -- guess what -- "Time After Time," had it arranged in some terrible folky manner and dedicated it to his grandmother. Predictably, Simon Cowell gave the 28-year-old backup singer a lecture on the difference between passion and competition.

Son, you can be an artist on your own time. If you want to win this SOB, you have to pick music that fits your voice and that people want to hear from you. Like Donny Hathaway. Like Stevie Wonder. How about Robin Thicke or Remy Shand or Joe or John Legend or, perhaps, some Sting with a soul twist.

Last week, I suggested Sundance Head take some time, head to a bar, drink a few drinkies and watch a good, live blues band. Don't know that he followed that exact advice, but he did something right because he was excellent on Tuesday doing "Mustang Sally," possibly the most overdone bar song of all time.

If you're not aware of this, well, Sundance -- even last week -- was the leading male vote-getter. He sucked and still racked up the votes, and he's leading so far again this week, according to DialIdol.com, which is widely regarded to be the closest we mortals can come to knowing the vote totals on our favorite show.

Really, to be the last male standing in Season 6, all he has to do is sing the blues. Every week, find a song he can fit into three or four-chord blues and feature his big Texas voice. It is a prescription for victory, and while I'm not that big a fan of his musically, I suspect he'll continue to grow a large following.

So, if the first pattern to emerge in the second week of Season 6 live competition is to adhere religiously to song choice, the second pattern might be that contestants should listen to some of us who have freaking watched this show since Day 1.

Brandon, let us save you. Goodness, already.

What's unfortunate for Brandon, who does have a great voice potentially, is that other guys stepped it up Tuesday night big time. Virginia-native Chris Richardson was excellent with Jason Mraz' "Geek In The Pink," a song I was heretofore unfamiliar with. On the other hand, I love Mraz. His first CD was among the best debut albums I've ever heard.

The guy who stood out to me, big time, was Blake Lewis. At first, he was this guy with weird hair and a white-boy ghetto look who could beatbox. Then, last week, he sang and only sang and wasn't half bad.

But then, this week, Blake busts out some Jamiroquai and did so originally, I thought. In mid-song, he was scatting and beatboxing, and I realized that in six seasons of this show, there really hasn't been somebody quite like this cat.

The show has featured some white-boy soul. Elliott Yamin had one of the better blue-eyed soul styles the show has yet to feature. On the other hand, Elliott always looked half uncomfortable on stage.

Chris Richardson comes out with what was, maybe, one move -- shaking his hip and waving his hand horizontally across it.

But, this Blake Lewis guy can legitimately move. Vocally, he's not perfect, but if Lewis continues to improve at this clip, he'll be one of the great all-time Idol contestants with a real chance to win.

Let's say pattern No. 3 is that, I think, the whole blue-eyed soul thing, among the males, will be a definite theme throughout the season. That's why South Carolina's own Chris Sligh should get back to the rock.

He was terrific doing Ray LaMontagne's "Trouble," so don't get me wrong. However, that's a very soulful tune, and while he should sing anything that shows off his big voice, I think he'd really do himself a favor by patterning his choices by answering the question, "Would Meat Loaf sing this song?"

Chris Sligh can win this bugger by channeling Meat Loaf. Nevertheless, he's a shoo-in for the Top 12.

Look, a lot of folks are falling for Phil Stacey. He's OK, but in singing John Waite's "Missing You," I thought he was mediocre at best, and to me, his voice sounded odd.

Sanjaya Malakar looked eerily like El DeBarge tonight, doing a whispery rendition of "Stepping Out With My Baby." Last week, Ryan Seacrest revealed that the 17-year-old Washington native was among the Top 4 boys.

While his performance was generally panned, he's got a following, and I don't think he's headed anywhere before making the Top 12.

Unfortunately, for a kid like Jared Cotter, it means that his days on Idol are certainly numbered. Same for Nick Pedro, who I thought was atrocious with the Peggy Lee classic "Fever." Cotter was at best average with "Let's Get It On."

The pattern I hope to see emerge here is that voters will see fit to send these two dudes home Thursday night because, long term, they stand no shot of winning the title.

Perhaps the one surprise of the evening was Idol's own version of Justin Suarez (if you watch "Ugly Betty"), A.J. Tabaldo, who came out and swished to some tune called "Feelin' Good."

Tabaldo is a contestant who assured us he was happy just making the Top 24 two weeks ago, that he had fulfilled his goal. Well, somebody needs to sit him down and make him understand he's pretty damned good. Getting better week after week is a way to turn a Top 24 surprise into something akin to the runs Diana DeGarmo or Jasmine Trias had in Season 3.

If I had to compel voters to get behind anybody for one week to ensure his survival, it'd be this kid. In a Top 12 setting, he'd be very interesting to see develop.

If it were me, I'd just kick Jared and Nick off the island right now, and be done with it. However, my gut hunch suggests Brandon Rogers will get the early hook, a tremendous disappointment if it happens.

However, song choice is where it's at.

It matters not how you feel about a song or a performance; it means everything how you sound.